The storm isn’t coming, it’s already here.
If you’ve worked in higher education for the last few years, you’ve felt the shift:
Fewer high school graduates
Declining demand for college
Greater competition over a smaller prospect pool
Jay, a seasoned enrollment leader, puts it plainly:
“We’re not just facing a demographic cliff, we’re also facing a demand cliff.”
That means the problem isn’t just fewer students…
It’s fewer interested students.
This article explores how to rethink your student recruitment pipelines before the cliff becomes a crater, and why diversification isn’t optional anymore.
The Shrinking Pipeline Everyone’s Talking About
The so-called “demographic cliff” refers to the projected drop in high school graduates, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, starting in 2025. It’s a result of the 2008 recession and declining birth rates.
By 2026:
- High school grad numbers will drop by 10–15% in many states
- Traditional undergraduate funnels will continue to shrink dramatically
- Competition among regional privates and publics will intensify
But the real threat isn’t just the size of the pipeline, it’s the withering of intent.
Welcome to the Demand Cliff
According to recent reports, fewer high school graduates are interested in attending college at all.
- Many are questioning ROI
- Families are avoiding perceived crushing student debt
- Some are choosing work, trade school, or certification paths
- Others simply don’t see college as accessible or necessary
You can have a funnel full of names, and still struggle to convert.
That’s the demand cliff.
What Enrollment Leaders Must Do Now: Diversify
Your survival will depend on building and nurturing alternate student recruitment pipelines. Here are the five most critical:
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Transfer Students
These students already have momentum. Many just need clarity around credit acceptance and cost.
Strategy: Make your credit evaluation process student-facing, 24/7, and on-demand.
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Adult Learners & Degree Completers
Tens of millions of Americans have some college, no degree. They need flexible formats, credit for experience, and ROI.
Strategy: Launch online programs with clear pathways, transparent costs, and real degree attainment plans.
-
International Students
While growth is slower than pre-2016, international students still bring diversity, revenue, and research strength. This is the most fragile pipeline, but an important one to strategize for.
Strategy: Focus on markets with rising outbound mobility and stable visa paths.
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Early College & Dual Enrollment Students
Build relationships early with high schoolers earning college credit. These students are college-ready by 17.
Strategy: Offer articulation maps and dual credit incentives.
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Internal Re-Recruitment
Stop losing your own students. Focus on retention, re-enrollment, and cross-department transfers. And if they do stop-out, intentionally re-recruit them back!
Strategy: Identify melt risks early and intervene with proactive advising.
Tools That Help You Scale These Pipelines
To diversify successfully, you need systems that:
- Capture student behavior and intent signals
- Provide immediate feedback on credit transfer or degree progress
- Automate manual tasks across admissions, advising, and registrar
- Surface pipeline analytics in real-time
DegreeSight’s INBOUND platform helps institutions do all of this, especially for transfer and adult pipelines.
The Funnel Isn’t Broken, It’s Shifting
Too many institutions are still pouring money into the old funnel:
- Buying lists
- Sending generic emails
- Hosting in-person-only events
If your student recruitment pipelines don’t reflect today’s actual demand sources, you’re burning budget and losing ground.
Don’t Just Brace for the Cliff, Build a Bridge
The demographic cliff is real. The demand cliff is invisible.
But enrollment teams who respond strategically, by building new, responsive pipelines, won’t just survive. They’ll thrive.
Start where the momentum is:
- Transfers
- Adults
- Dual credit
- Degree completers
- Rebounders
The future belongs to enrollment teams that move now.
Let’s Diversify Your Funnel
DegreeSight helps you identify, capture, and convert high-intent students across all pipelines.
Book your Transfer Friendliness & Funnel Assessment today
Schedule here →